Astakhova, DaryaVSBondar, Anna

Summary: We recommend betting the away (Bondar) at 1.11 — our conservative estimated win probability (94%) produces a small positive EV (~+4.3%).

Key claims

• • Market odds — home: 5.5, away: 1.11.
• • We recommend betting the away (Bondar) at 1.11
• • our conservative estimated win probability (94%)
• • The book price for Bondar (away) of 1.11 implies a raw market probability of ~90.1%
• • we estimate Bondar's true win probability at 94.0%
• • EV = 0.94 * 1.11 - 1 = +0.0434 (≈ +4.34% ROI on a unit stake)
• • The home price (5.50) implies ~18.2%
• • implied probability for Astakhova (≈6.0%)
• • Research lacks fresh match-specific data (injuries, last-minute form, H2H)

Details

We view the market as underestimating Bondar's chance slightly. The book price for Bondar (away) of 1.11 implies a raw market probability of ~90.1%, but based on cached player profiles and conservative assumptions about form and matchup we estimate Bondar's true win probability at 94.0%. Using EV = p * odds - 1 gives EV = 0.94 * 1.11 - 1 = +0.0434 (≈ +4.34% ROI on a unit stake), which represents positive value. The home price (5.50) implies ~18.2% and is far above our implied probability for Astakhova (≈6.0%), so the only exploitable value at available prices is on the heavy favourite Bondar. We remain conservative because there are no fresh injury or H2H sources; this is a small, low-margin value bet rather than a large edge.