Stewart, HamishVSBlancaneaux, Geoffrey

Summary: We find a small value on Hamish Stewart at 1.71 based on a conservative 60% win probability estimate, producing ~2.6% expected ROI per unit staked.

Key claims

• • Market odds — home: 1.71, away: 2.1.
• • We find a small value on Hamish Stewart at 1.71 based on a conservative 60% win probability estimate, producing ~2.6% expected ROI per unit staked.
• • home 1.71, implied win prob ~58.5%
• • estimate Hamish Stewart’s true win probability at 60.0%.
• • EV = 0.60 * 1.71 - 1 = 0.026 (2.6% ROI).
• • Stewart is marginally favored on the surface and recent Challenger-level form in our cache, Blancaneaux is more variable and appears stronger on slower clay surfaces
• • there are no reported injuries or fitness concerns for either player in the available notes
• • market contains a modest overround
• • Edge is small — sensitive to changes in our probability estimate
• • Limited available data and no live/injury updates increase uncertainty

Details

We view the market price (home 1.71, implied win prob ~58.5%) as slightly underestimating Stewart’s chances. Using conservative cached profiles and match context, we estimate Hamish Stewart’s true win probability at 60.0%. That gives a positive edge versus the 1.71 quote: EV = 0.60 * 1.71 - 1 = 0.026 (2.6% ROI). Key considerations: Stewart is marginally favored on the surface and recent Challenger-level form in our cache, Blancaneaux is more variable and appears stronger on slower clay surfaces, there are no reported injuries or fitness concerns for either player in the available notes, and the market contains a modest overround. Given the small but positive expected value at widely available prices, we recommend backing the home player at 1.71 but note the edge is modest and rests on conservative assumptions.