Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) ~65.8%; our conservative estimate 62%
• • Required decimal odds for profit at our estimate: 1.613; current is 1.52

Pros

• + Market correctly prices the home pair as favorite
• + Odds are tight and reflect low informational edge

Cons

• - No available research to justify an edge vs. market
• - Favorite needs a better price (>1.613) to be profitable at our estimate

Details

We have no external data on form, injuries, surface history or head-to-head for these pairs, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices show the home pair as favorite at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) and the away pair at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%), with a ~7.5% bookmaker overround. Based on typical doubles uncertainty and the lack of corroborating information, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 62% (slightly below the market-implied 65.8% to account for overround and uncertainty). At that estimate the fair break-even decimal price is ~1.613, which is above the current 1.52, producing a negative expected value. We therefore do not find value on either side at the quoted prices and recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data available on form, injuries, surface or H2H
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.5%) reduces value at quoted prices
• • Doubles matches are higher variance; favorites often need a larger edge to be profitable