A. Adascalitei/D. Reggianini vs L. Sevcikova/E M. Voracek
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favourite is too short to offer positive EV under conservative probability estimates, and the underdog’s price is not high enough relative to a realistic upset chance.
Highlights
- • Favourite implied prob (98.0%) exceeds our conservative estimate (95.0%)
- • Underdog would need true probability >7.14% to be a value bet; we estimate ~5%
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies the superior side — low variance on that view
- + If additional positive info on favourite appears, minimal further edge needed
Cons
- - Price on favourite leaves effectively no edge and some downside from push/upset
- - Underdog payout does not compensate for our estimated upset likelihood
Details
We see a market that strongly favors the away pair (L. Sevcikova/E M. Voracek) at 1.02 (implied 98.04%) while the home pair is priced as a longshot at 14.0 (implied 7.14%). With no external data returned and taking a conservative stance, we estimate the true win probability for the heavy favourites at 95.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.053; the offered 1.02 is below that threshold and produces negative expected value. Conversely, the underdog price of 14.0 would require a true chance above 7.14% to be valuable; given typical variance in doubles and the lack of supporting information, we estimate the underdog’s true win probability roughly 5.0%—below the break-even threshold. Calculations: favourite EV = 0.95 * 1.02 - 1 = -0.031 (≈ -3.1% ROI). Underdog EV = 0.05 * 14.0 - 1 = -0.30 (≈ -30% ROI). Neither side shows positive EV at the quoted market prices, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market price heavily favours away team (1.02) leaving almost no margin
- • No independent data returned – conservative probability estimates only
- • Underdog would need >7.14% true win probability to be profitable at 14.0