A. Aubriot/M. Scaglia vs P. Alam/V. Paganetti

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.35) ~74.1%, our conservative estimate 70% — slight overpricing of favorite
• • Away at 3.00 would need >33.3% true probability to be +EV; we estimate ~30%

Pros

• + Conservative, data-light stance avoids overbetting on uncertain match
• + Clear numeric EV comparison shows both sides negative at current odds

Cons

• - Lack of specific player/team info means our probabilities are blunt and may miss real edges
• - If market is mispricing due to information we don't have, a value opportunity could exist that we are not capturing

Details

We adopt a conservative approach given no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data. The market price (home 1.35 => implied ~74.1%) suggests the market favors A. Aubriot/M. Scaglia. After accounting for uncertainty and avoiding overconfidence, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 70%. At that probability the home moneyline (1.35) offers negative expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.35 - 1 = -0.055 (≈ -5.5% ROI). The away side at 3.00 with an implied probability of 33.3% would require a true probability ≥ 33.33% to break even; our conservative estimated away probability is 30% producing EV = 0.30 * 3.00 - 1 = -0.10. Neither side shows positive EV at current widely-available prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent form, surface, or injury data available—use conservative priors
• • Market-implied probability (home) ~74% vs our conservative estimate 70%
• • Away price (3.00) would require >33.3% true chance to be profitable; our estimate is ~30%