Highlights

• • Away implied break-even probability is 46.7%; our conservative estimate is 50%
• • EV at current odds is roughly +0.07 (7% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Quoted away odds (2.14) exceed our min required odds (2.00) for a 50% win probability
• + Neutral assumptions reduce the risk of over-optimistic forecasting

Cons

• - Decision is based on lack of data rather than positive evidence (form, injuries, H2H)
• - EV is small — sensitive to small changes in true probability estimate

Details

We have no external form, injury, or H2H data, so we apply conservative, neutral assumptions. The market prices the home pair at 1.64 (implied ~61.0%) and the away pair at 2.14 (implied ~46.7%), leaving a bookmaker margin. Under a neutral assessment (teams roughly equal), we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 50.0%. At the quoted away price of 2.14 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.50 * 2.14 - 1 = +0.07). In short, with no information favouring either team and a market that over-favours the listed favourite, the away price appears to offer small but real value versus our conservative 50% fair estimate.

Key factors

• • No form/injury/H2H data available — conservative neutral assumption used
• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities show a notable favourite (home 61%) — potential overpricing
• • At a conservative true probability of 50%, the away price 2.14 yields positive EV