Highlights

• • Home implied chance 5.56%; our conservative estimate 6.0% gives positive EV
• • Away at 1.01 is not a value play unless outcome is virtually certain

Pros

• + Positive expected value at quoted 18.0 (EV ≈ +0.08 per unit)
• + Conservative probability lift is just enough to create value without aggressive assumptions

Cons

• - Edge is small and relies on a modest probability adjustment from limited information
• - High variance — longshot outcome with low baseline probability

Details

The market makes A. Barnett/E. Lechemia a long shot at 18.0 (implied win probability 5.56%) while A. Bolsova/D. Semenistaja are priced at 1.01 (implied ~99.0%). With no external form/injury data available we apply conservative assumptions: doubles matches carry higher variance and outright short-priced favorites can be slightly over-juiced by bookmakers, so a small upward adjustment to the home pair's winning probability is reasonable. We estimate a true win probability for the home pair of 6.0%, which is above the market-implied 5.56% and yields positive expected value versus the 18.0 quote. The away price at 1.01 offers no value unless their true win probability exceeds ~99.01%, which is implausible. Given the high payout on the home price relative to our conservative probability estimate, the home side represents value at current prices, albeit with pronounced variance and risk.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (5.56%) is slightly below our conservative true probability (6.0%)
• • Doubles matches are higher-variance events where longshot upside can be underpriced
• • Away price (1.01) is effectively unbackable for value without near-certain outcome