A. Binda/I. Simakin vs A. Kadhe/N. V. S. Prashanth
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at current prices; the favorite at 1.26 does not offer positive expected return under conservative probability assumptions, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability ~79% vs our conservative estimate 75%
- • Required minimum decimal odds for value on favorite: 1.333; current is 1.26
Pros
- + Clear market consensus on a strong favorite — pricing is consistent
- + If further intel shows matchup issues for the favorite, value could appear quickly
Cons
- - No supporting data on form or injuries to justify taking an edge
- - Favorite's price is too short to produce positive expected value under conservative assumptions
Details
Bookmakers price the away pair at 1.26 (implied ~79%) and the home pair at 3.55 (implied ~28%). However, there are no external form, surface, injury, or head-to-head details available; given that uncertainty we apply a conservative estimate that the favorite (away) has a true win probability of 75%. At that probability the expected return on the 1.26 price is negative (-0.055), so we find no value at current public odds. To recommend a side we would need a price above ~1.333 for the favorite (or a materially higher estimated probability). The long price on the home side would require an implausibly low true probability for the favorite to be profitable, and we lack evidence to justify that line.
Key factors
- • No independent form, injury, surface, or H2H information available — increases uncertainty
- • Bookmaker odds strongly favor the away pair (1.26) implying ~79% chance
- • Conservative estimate (75%) still produces negative EV at the quoted 1.26 price
- • Home price (3.55) would require the favorite to be markedly overestimated to be valuable