A. Bueno Gil/N. Goldberg Alviani vs A. Petrovic/L. Rivera
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at the current prices: the favorite’s market odds (1.43) require a win probability materially higher than our estimate, and the underdog also fails to clear a value threshold.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.43) ≈ 69.9%; our estimated true probability = 65%
- • Home implied probability (2.65) ≈ 37.7%; our estimate for home ≈ 35%
- • Book margin (~7.6%) further reduces edge for bettors
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the away team, consistent with our assessment of them as the stronger side
- + Odds are stable and widely available for either side
Cons
- - No additional data (form, H2H, injuries) to justify taking on market favorite at offered price
- - Book margin consumes potential small edges; current prices are negative EV vs our model
Details
We compared the market prices (Home 2.65, Away 1.43) to our internal win probability estimate. The raw implied probabilities sum to >100% (book margin ~7.6%); normalizing gives roughly Home 35.0% / Away 64.9%. With only surface information (clay) and no reliable form, H2H, or injury data provided, we conservatively rate the away team at ~65% true win probability. That is below the break-even threshold for the favorite at the quoted 1.43 (requires ~69.93%), so the favorite is over-priced relative to our view and offers negative expected value. The underdog at 2.65 would require >37.7% to be +EV; our assessment for the underdog is lower (~35%), so that side is also negative EV. Given the lack of decisive additional information and apparent bookmaker margin, we do not see value at current market prices.
Key factors
- • Book market implies favorite probability > our estimate once normalization and margin considered
- • Only surface (clay) provided — no form, H2H, or injury data to justify divergence from market
- • Bookmaker margin (~7.6%) reduces apparent value in both outcomes