A. Bulatova/A. Petkovic vs A. Dudeney/M. Heuser
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the market favorite price of 1.38 is slightly over-priced relative to our conservative 70% win estimate, producing a small negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.38) = ~72.5%; our estimate = 70%
- • Home would need >35.71% to be +EV at 2.80; we estimate ~30%
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the away pair, consistent with our conservative assessment
- + No strong conflicting information available that would overturn the market edge
Cons
- - Current favorite price does not offer positive expected value versus our estimate
- - High uncertainty due to absent surface/form/injury data; potential for volatility in doubles
Details
Market prices make the away pair A. Dudeney/M. Heuser a clear favorite at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%). For this match we adopt a conservative estimated true win probability for the away side of 70% given the favorite pricing but limited available information (no form, surface, or injury data). At that estimated probability the away price (1.38) offers negative expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.38 - 1 = -0.034). The home side would require a win probability above 35.71% to be +EV at 2.80; we estimate the home pair closer to 30% chance, so that price is also negative EV. Given the small edge required on either side and the lack of corroborating data, we decline to recommend a wager.
Key factors
- • Away is a clear market favorite at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%)
- • No additional information on surface, recent form, or injuries — increases uncertainty
- • Doubles matches can be more volatile; large favorites must show clear value to back