Highlights

• • Market implies ~61.7% for home; we estimate 63%
• • Projected EV is small but positive (~2.1%)

Pros

• + Current price (1.62) offers slight value versus our conservative probability
• + Simple, low-information margin — avoids overreaching on uncertain factors

Cons

• - Edge is very small and sensitive to small errors in the probability estimate
• - No research available to substantiate the assumed advantage — higher model risk

Details

We use a conservative model given no external data: the market price of 1.62 implies a 61.7% chance for the home pair. Allowing a small additional edge for home listing and no contrary information, we estimate the true win probability at 63.0%. At that probability the home selection yields a small positive expected value versus the current market. This is a low-margin value play driven by a slight subjective edge over the implied market probability rather than any strong informational advantage.

Key factors

• • No external research available — using conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability (1/1.62 ≈ 61.7%) vs our slightly higher estimate (63%)
• • Small home/listing-edge assumed in absence of contrary data