Highlights

• • Market implies ~92.6% for the home side; we estimate ~86%
• • At our estimate the fair odds are ~1.163 — the current 1.08 is negative EV

Pros

• + Home market price reflects perceived strong advantage
• + Away player (Evans) has documented poor recent form in the provided research

Cons

• - The market price is too short to offer value unless the home win chance exceeds ~92.6%
• - Research lacks doubles-specific performance and partner-level context, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.08, away 7.00) to our assessment of the true win probability. The market implies the home pair has ~92.6% chance to win; based on the limited research (Evans shows poor recent form and a weak singles record in 2024–2025, and there is limited doubles-specific information), we estimate the home pair's true win probability at ~86%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.163, meaning the current quote of 1.08 offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend betting the heavy favorite at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.08) requires >92.6% true win chance to be +EV
• • E. Evans shows poor recent form and a subpar win-loss record in the available data
• • Limited doubles-specific data and uncertainty around partner form make a >92% estimate implausible