A. Bulatova/A. Petkovic vs V. Bhunu/L. Soussi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no value at the current prices: the home price is too short relative to our conservative win probability estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (89.3%) exceeds our estimate (86.0%)
- • Underdog would need >17.24% true probability to be a value bet at 5.8
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a dominant favorite—match outcome likely decisive
- + Quotes are stable and widely available (no outlier prices)
Cons
- - Home price is too short to be profitable versus our probability estimate
- - Lack of external data increases uncertainty; must be conservative
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative internal estimate. The book market prices the home pair at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%). Given no external form/injury/H2H data and the extreme short price, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 86.0%. That estimate is below the breakeven threshold for the quoted home price, producing a negative expected return; the away side would need >17.24% true probability to be valuable at 5.8, which is above our conservative estimate for an underdog in this situation. With current quotes we therefore find no positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.12) = ~89.3% versus our conservative 86.0% estimate
- • No independent form, injury, surface or H2H data available—must be conservative
- • Away would need >17.24% true chance to be profitable at 5.8; unlikely given heavy favorite dynamics