Highlights

• • Both sides priced equally at 1.86 (no market skew detected)
• • Our fair price for the home side is ~1.961; current quotes are below that

Pros

• + Conservative edge assigned to home pairing (0.51) rather than overconfident estimate
• + Clear required-odds threshold provided if market drifts

Cons

• - No external form/injury/H2H data available to justify a larger edge
• - Current market price (1.86) is below the minimum profitable decimal odds

Details

We treated the market as balanced (both sides 1.86) and, given no external research, applied conservative assumptions. The market-implied probability at 1.86 is ~53.8% per side, but we assign a slightly smaller edge to the home pairing (A. Candiotto/B. Haddad Maia) at 51% due to limited information and potential home familiarity. At our estimated true probability (0.51) the fair decimal price would be ~1.961; the available price of 1.86 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.51 * 1.86 - 1 ≈ -0.0514). Because expected_value is negative at current prices, we do not recommend a bet. If better odds emerge (>= 1.961) the home side would become a value play.

Key factors

• • No independent web data available — conservative assumptions only
• • Market is symmetrical (both sides 1.86) implying an even contest
• • Slight nominal edge for the home pairing based on name recognition/home context, but not large enough to justify a bet at 1.86