A. Chandrasekar/R. Stalder vs Y. Inui/Y. Kikuchi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at current prices: the favourite's odds (1.19) are too short relative to our conservative 78% win estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated home win probability: 78%
- • Breakeven min decimal odds for home: 1.282; market price 1.19 yields negative EV
Pros
- + Market consensus strongly favors the home pair (short price indicates genuine strength or perceived mismatch)
- + Low variance outcome likely for heavy favourite if assumptions hold
Cons
- - Current prices are too short to offer value after conservative adjustments
- - Significant uncertainty due to lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases downside risk
Details
We treat the home pair as a clear market favourite (market-implied win ~84.0% at 1.19) but, in the absence of match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H), we apply a conservative downward adjustment to remove bookmaker margin and uncertainty. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 78.0% (0.78). That implies a fair minimum decimal price of 1.282. The available home price of 1.19 is shorter than the min-required price, producing negative expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.19 - 1 ≈ -0.072). The away price (4.35) would require an implied win probability ≥ 1/4.35 ≈ 23.0% to be breakeven; given our conservative estimate that the away chance is roughly the complement (≈22%), the away price also offers no positive value. With no positive EV on either side at current quotes and material information missing, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability at 1.19 is ~84% but includes bookmaker margin
- • No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) — we apply conservative uncertainty discount
- • After margin/uncertainty adjustment, required fair odds (≥1.282) exceed current 1.19