A. Coello/A. Tapia vs J. Garcia Mora/J. Gonzalez Barahona
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no verifiable information and a highly skewed market, we cannot justify a value bet; we rate both sides as negative EV at current prices.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.05 requires >95.24% true win probability to be +EV
- • Away must be >11.11% to be +EV; our conservative estimate is ~8%, so no value
Pros
- + Market shows a clear favorite which could occasionally be mispriced
- + If independent info later shows the favorite is unavailable, the underdog line would become attractive
Cons
- - No supporting data on players, surface, or match status to justify overriding the market
- - Current underdog price (9.0) is insufficient relative to our conservative upset probability
Details
We have no external data beyond the quoted markets. The home side is an overwhelming favorite at 1.05 which implies a required true-win probability >95.2% to be +EV (1/1.05). That level of confidence is unrealistic given the absence of confirmed form, surface, injuries, or H2H information. The away price of 9.0 implies a required probability >11.11% to be +EV. Conservatively, and absent any supporting evidence for an upset, we estimate the away pair's true chance at ~8%. At that estimate the away stake yields negative EV (0.08*9.0 - 1 = -0.28). Given the uncertain status of the match and extreme market skew, we do not find value in either side at the posted prices.
Key factors
- • No external information on form, fitness, surface preference, or H2H
- • Extremely short favorite (1.05) suggests either a heavy mismatch or non-standard match status
- • Underdog decimal 9.0 requires >11.11% true chance for +EV; our conservative estimate is ~8%