A. Coello/A. Tapia vs J. Lebron/F. Stupaczuk

Highlights

• • Favorite (home) implied probability ~77% vs our conservative estimate 75% -> slight over-round, negative EV
• • Underdog would need ~4.00 to represent value; current 3.35 is too short

Pros

• + Market clearly indicates a favorite, so match outcome is likely but not priced for value
• + Conservative assumptions reduce the risk of overestimating value in absence of data

Cons

• - No surface, form, injury or H2H data available to refine probabilities
• - Small margin between our probability and market means outcome could be sensitive to additional facts

Details

We assume a conservative true probability for the home pair (A. Coello/A. Tapia) given the market pricing and no additional research data. The market-implied probability from the favorite's odds (1.3) is high (~77%), and after conservative adjustment we estimate the home win probability at 75%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.333; the current market price of 1.30 offers a negative expected value. We also conservatively estimate the away pair (J. Lebron/F. Stupaczuk) win probability at ~25%, which would require ~4.00 decimal to be +EV; the quoted away odds of 3.35 are below that threshold. Given the lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H information, we avoid taking the market favorite because neither side shows positive expected value under conservative assumptions.

Key factors

• • No external data available on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H – we adopt conservative assumptions
• • Market heavily favors home at 1.30; our conservative true probability (75%) implies required odds ~1.333
• • Away odds (3.35) are below a conservative required threshold (~4.00) for +EV given a 25% win estimate