Highlights

• • Offered home price (1.71) is slightly above our fair price (1.667)
• • Estimated ROI is modest (~2.6%) — opportunistic, not decisive

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price under conservative assumptions
• + Simple, low-complexity bet on the market favorite

Cons

• - Very limited information increases model uncertainty
• - Small margin of value — vulnerable to estimation error or late information

Details

We have no external data on recent form, H2H, or injuries, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices imply the home side at 1.71 carries an implied probability of ~58.5% (1/1.71). Accounting for a modest home/venue advantage and the tendency for markets to include vig, we estimate the true win probability for A. De Bernardis/M. Mesaglio at 60.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.667; the offered 1.71 therefore contains small positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = 0.60 * 1.71 - 1 = 0.026 (2.6% ROI). Given the limited information and the relatively small margin, this is a low-margin, opportunistic play rather than a strong conviction bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home ~58.5% vs our conservative estimate 60.0%
• • Home-side advantage assumed in absence of external data
• • High uncertainty due to no form/injury/H2H data