Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1/1.47) ~68% vs our estimate 62%
• • Required decimal odds for value on our estimate: 1.613 (higher than current 1.47)

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair, indicating they are expected winners
• + If additional positive info emerges (injury to opponents, strong recent form), the situation could change

Cons

• - Current home price (1.47) offers negative EV versus our conservative probability estimate
• - No supporting data (form/surface/H2H) to justify a deviation from conservative probabilities

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.47, implied ~68.0%) against a conservative estimated win probability for A. Detiuc/E. Pridankina of 62.0%. With limited external information (no form, injury, surface or H2H data available), we assume the market is favoring the home pair but likely includes the usual bookmaker margin. Our estimated true probability (62.0%) is materially below the market-implied threshold required to make a positive expectation at the quoted home price (1.47). Using p=0.62, the expected value at the current home odds is EV = 0.62 * 1.47 - 1 = -0.089 (≈ -8.9% ROI), so there is no value to back the home side at available prices. The away price (2.60) would require the away pair to have a true win probability > 0.3846 to be +EV; absent any concrete indicators that the away pair is underrated to that extent, we do not find a value edge there either.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (~68%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (62%)
• • No external data on recent form, surface suitability, injuries, or H2H to justify diverging from a conservative estimate
• • Bookmaker margin likely embedded in the quoted prices
• • Away price would require >38.46% true win probability to be +EV; no evidence supports that uplift