Highlights

• • Normalized fair probability for home ≈ 64%
• • Negative EV at current home odds (1.47): -0.059

Pros

• + Clear market prices available to compare against a conservative probability
• + Conservative, margin-adjusted approach avoids overbetting on limited information

Cons

• - No external data (form, injury, surface, H2H) to identify potential edges
• - Small market inefficiency could exist in less-informed venues, but current prices don’t reflect value

Details

We converted the quoted decimals to implied probabilities (home 1/1.47 = 0.680, away 1/2.60 = 0.385) and noted a bookmaker overround (~6.5%). Normalizing those implied probabilities produces a fair-market estimate near 64% for the home side and 36% for the away side. With no additional reliable information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we apply a conservative true probability for the home team of 0.64. At the current home price (1.47) the expected return would be p * odds - 1 = 0.64 * 1.47 - 1 = -0.059 (negative). The home side therefore does not offer positive expected value at the quoted market price, and the away side would require even longer odds to be attractive. Because neither side offers positive EV at the current prices, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker overround (market margin) inflates implied probabilities
• • Normalized fair probability for home ≈ 0.64 — too low to justify current 1.47 price
• • No additional match-specific information (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify diverging from conservative estimate