A. Dudeney/M. Heuser vs V. Milovanova/A. Sara
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value found at current prices: the favorite looks overpriced relative to our conservative 70% win estimate, and the underdog lacks justification to be rated at ≥32.8%. We recommend passing.
Highlights
- • Normalized market favorite probability ~69.5%; our conservative estimate 70%
- • Fair price for home at our estimate ≈ 1.429; market offers 1.34 (no value)
Pros
- + Clear market favorite — lower variance outcome expectation
- + Odds are widely available and stable, so if new information appears it will be easy to reassess
Cons
- - Quoted favorite price (1.34) offers negative EV vs our conservative probability
- - No additional data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify deviating from conservative estimates
Details
We normalize the market-implied probabilities from the quoted prices (home 1.34, away 3.05) and apply conservative assumptions given no extra form/injury/H2H information. The market overround is material (~7.4%), producing a normalized home probability near 69.5%. Conservatively we estimate the true home-win probability at 70%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.429, which is above the current available home price of 1.34, so the favorite is overpriced from a value perspective. We also considered the underdog (away) at the market-normalized ~30.5% — to be valuable at 3.05 the away pair would need a true chance ≥32.8%, which we have no basis to claim. Given the lack of independent positive information to shift probabilities materially, neither side shows positive expected value at the current quotes.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove ~7.4% overround
- • No independent information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H — we apply conservative estimates
- • Current favorite price (1.34) requires >71% true win chance to be +EV; our estimate is below that threshold