Highlights

• • Estimated true probability: 15.0%
• • Current price (6.75) slightly exceeds minimum fair odds (6.667)

Pros

• + Available odds give a small positive EV (≈+0.0125 per unit staked)
• + Short-favourite markets (1.09) can compress probability and occasionally underprice longshots

Cons

• - Edge is marginal — close to break-even and may be nullified by small model or information errors
• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to support the uplift, increasing risk

Details

We compared the market price (Home 6.75, Away 1.09) to a conservative independent assessment. The moneyline implies the market gives the home team roughly a 13.9% chance after normalizing for vig. Given the lack of independent data (no form, injury, surface, or H2H information returned) we apply a conservative uplift to the home probability to 15.0% to account for market compression around very short favourites (1.09). At an estimated true probability of 15.0%, the fair decimal odds would be 6.667; the available price of 6.75 therefore offers a small positive expected value. We remain cautious because this edge is marginal and the information set is limited.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favours the away side (1.09) creating potential over-compression
• • No external research returned — elevated uncertainty in estimates
• • Small edge: our conservative true probability (15%) implies required odds ~6.667, market offers 6.75