A. Fenty/N. Schachter vs M. Krueger/J. Sheehy

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Away: 78%
• • Break-even odds needed: 1.282; current price 1.24 -> negative EV

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors the away team, indicating they are likely the better side
• + If additional confirming info appears (injury to favorite's partner, late withdrawal), reassess quickly

Cons

• - Current available price (1.24) does not offer value versus our conservative estimate
• - High uncertainty due to lack of specific data on form, surface and team chemistry

Details

We compared the market price (Away 1.24 -> implied ~80.6%) to a conservative estimated true win probability for the away side of 78%. Given extremely limited information (no recent form, H2H, surface or injury data returned), we intentionally reduce the implied probability slightly to account for bookmaker margin and doubles volatility. At our estimated probability the break-even decimal odds are ~1.282; the available price (1.24) is below that threshold, producing a small negative expected value, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Away at 1.24 (implied ~80.6%); very short price
• • No reliable form, H2H, surface or injury data available — we apply a conservative estimate
• • Doubles matches have high variance; small edges are easily erased by bookmaker margins