Highlights

• • Home priced very short (1.22); needs >81.97% true chance to be +EV
• • Conservative true probability (75%) yields EV ≈ -8.5% at current odds

Pros

• + Home is likely the stronger pairing based on seeding/positioning implications
• + Market treats home as clear favorite, reflecting probable quality gap

Cons

• - Current market price (1.22) is too short to offer value versus our conservative estimate
• - No reliable external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify raising our true-probability estimate above ~75%

Details

We estimate the home pairing (A. Gentili/G. Rizzetto) is the stronger side but not overwhelmingly so given the lack of form, surface, injury, and H2H data. Conservatively we assign a 75% true win probability to the home team. At the quoted decimal price of 1.22 the home side would need a true win probability > 81.967% (1 / 1.22) to be a positive EV wager. Using our 75% estimate, the expected return on a 1-unit stake is negative (0.75 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.085), so there is no value at the current market price. We therefore recommend no bet unless the market offers at least ~1.333 or higher on the home side (or a substantially longer price on the away team than implied by our estimates).

Key factors

• • Quoted home price 1.22 implies >81.97% probability to be profitable
• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we use conservative 75% estimate
• • Small margin between our estimate and market implies negative EV at current price