Highlights

• • Market implies ~94.34% for the away pair; we estimate ~88%
• • Expected ROI at 1.06 is roughly -6.7%, so we advise against betting

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the away pair, suggesting they are strong on paper
• + If additional inside information later shows >94% chance, the price would be profitable

Cons

• - Current price leaves almost no margin for estimation error — likely negative EV for most realistic true probabilities
• - No supporting data available to justify the market-implied >94% probability

Details

We find no value on the heavy market favorite at 1.06. With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we apply a conservative, uncertainty-aware estimate. The market-implied probability for the away side at 1.06 is ~94.34% (1/1.06). Given typical variance in lower-tier events and the lack of supporting data, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 88.0%. At that estimate the expected value of the 1.06 price is negative: EV = 0.88 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.0672 (≈ -6.7% ROI). To be a +EV play at the quoted 1.06, the true win probability would need to exceed ~94.34%, which we judge unlikely without stronger information. The long price on the home pair (8.5) corresponds to an implied probability of ~11.76%, which we also consider overpriced relative to realistic upset likelihood but not enough to create a clear, actionable value bet given our conservative estimate.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury or H2H data available — must be conservative
• • Market-implied probability for away at 1.06 is ~94.34%, which is very high
• • Our conservative true-probability estimate (~88%) makes the favourite +EV-negative at current price