A. Ghibaudo/A. Shelbayh vs L. Pow/K. Szymkowiak
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 62%, which is below the market-implied ~65.4%, so there is no positive expected value on either side at current prices.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 65.4% (1.53) vs our estimate 62% — no value
- • Away would need >42.0% true chance to be +EV at 2.38; our implied away chance ~38% — no value
Pros
- + Market favors the home team consistently, reflecting perceived strength
- + Conservative estimate reduces risk of overbetting without data
Cons
- - No available recent form, injury, or H2H data to refine probability estimates
- - Edge between our estimate and the market is small — limited value opportunities
Details
We have no independent match data and proceed conservatively. The market prices (home 1.53, away 2.38) imply win probabilities of ~65.4% for the home pair and ~42.0% for the away pair. Given the lack of form/injury/H2H data, we estimate a true win probability for the home team at 62.0% (more conservative than the market). At the quoted home odds (1.53) that estimate yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.53 - 1 ≈ -0.051). To find value we would need the market to price the home side at decimal odds ≥ 1.613. The away side would require a true win probability above ~42.0% to be positive at 2.38; given our 62% home estimate the away true probability is ~38% and thus also offers no value. Because both sides appear to be mispriced against our conservative estimates, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No independent form/injury/H2H data available — must be conservative
- • Market-implied home probability (65.4%) exceeds our conservative estimate (62%)
- • Small margin between market price and our estimate means no positive EV at current odds