Highlights

• • Home needs ≥36.36% true win chance to be profitable; we estimate ~38%
• • Edge is small: ~4.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Market likely overestimates away due to short pricing (1.40)
• + Tang's documented poor recent results argue against the heavy favorite price

Cons

• - Limited data on the home pairing increases uncertainty
• - Edge is narrow and could be erased by unseen factors (partner strength, surface, matchup dynamics)

Details

We find value on the home side at current decimal 2.75. The market prices the away pair at 1.40 (implied ~71.4%), which would require an overwhelming true chance for the away team. The only concrete data available shows Qianhui Tang with a weak recent record (10-21, multiple recent losses) which reduces confidence in the away pairing; doubles pairings can also introduce variance not captured by a straight favorite price. Given the limited information on the home duo but accounting for Tang's poor form and the market's compressed favorite price, we estimate the home side's true win probability above the break-even threshold for 2.75, producing a small positive edge. We therefore recommend backing the home team only because current odds exceed our minimum required price for positive EV.

Key factors

• • Qianhui Tang's recent form is poor (10-21, multiple recent losses)
• • Away moneyline 1.40 implies ~71.4% win chance which is unlikely given Tang's form and doubles variance
• • Current home odds 2.75 exceed our required threshold (2.632) for positive EV