A. Jones/T. Martin vs F. Bass/J. Mackinlay

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 2.88 = 34.7% vs our estimate ~28%
• • Required fair odds for +EV on home = ~3.571 decimal

Pros

• + Both players have professional match experience on hard courts (so surface familiarity is present)
• + If opponent(s) are unexpectedly fatigued or injured, the price could become attractive

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form and multiple consecutive losses on hard courts
• - Market strongly favors the away side and current price does not offer compensating value

Details

We estimate the Jones/Martin pairing has limited upside here and is priced as a clear underdog (decimal 2.88, implied 34.7%). Both A. Jones and T. Martin carry poor recent records (each ~10-21) with multiple recent losses on hard courts, indicating weak form and low momentum. Comparing the market price to our projection (home win probability ~28%), the market is offering ~2.88 (implied 34.7%) which still does not compensate for the duo's form and win expectancy — the fair decimal would need to be ≈3.57 or higher to be +EV. The heavy market favoritism toward the away team (1.38) aligns with the available form data; with the limited information on opponents we avoid inferring further positives for the home side. Given our projection, neither side offers positive expected value at the current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Both A. Jones and T. Martin have poor season records (approx. 10-21) and multiple recent losses
• • Recent matches documented on hard courts were losses — form on the listed surface is weak
• • Market heavily favors the away team (1.38), and the available form evidence does not support the underdog price as +EV