Highlights

• • Home implied 44.8% vs our estimate 48% → positive edge
• • Required fair odds 2.083; market offers 2.23

Pros

• + Available decimal price (2.23) exceeds our conservative fair price
• + Doubles volatility can amplify small edges into profitable outcomes over time

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H) — model uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (~7% ROI) and could vanish with additional information

Details

We lack external data, so we adopt a conservative estimate. The market prices the away side as favorite at 1.60 (implied win probability 62.5%) and the home side at 2.23 (implied 44.8%). Given typical uncertainty in doubles and no injury or form information, we estimate the true win probability for A. Malik/Y. Yadav at 48%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.083; the available 2.23 therefore offers positive expected value. We prefer the home side only because the implied probability underprices them relative to our conservative estimate; the away side at 1.60 shows no value versus a realistic win probability below 62.5%.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — conservative modeling
• • Market-implied probability: home 44.8%, away 62.5%
• • Doubles matches have higher variance, which can create pricing inefficiencies
• • Small edge: our fair price for home (2.083) is lower than market (2.23)
• • Venue/surface and player fitness unknown — increases uncertainty