A. Moratelli/D. Semenistaja vs T. Morderger/Y. Morderger

Highlights

• • Implied probability (1.17) = ~85.5%, higher than our estimated 80%
• • Required odds for positive EV with our estimate = 1.25; market is shorter at 1.17

Pros

• + Heavy favorite likely to win in many scenarios
• + Low volatility outcome if underlying quality gap exists

Cons

• - Current price offers no value against our conservative probability
• - No external data to justify moving our true probability above the implied market price

Details

The market prices the home pair as a heavy favorite at 1.17 (implied probability ~85.5%). We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data to refine that estimate, so we apply a conservative true win probability of 80% to allow for uncertainty and bookmaker margin. At p = 0.80 the break-even decimal odds are 1.25; the current price (1.17) produces EV = 0.80 * 1.17 - 1 = -0.064 (-6.4% ROI). Because our estimated probability is lower than the implied probability from the market, there is no positive expected value on the favorite and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Current market implies ~85.5% chance for the home team (1/1.17).
• • We applied a conservative true probability (80%) due to lack of external data on form, surface, injuries, and H2H.
• • At 1.17 the implied probability exceeds our estimate, producing negative EV.