A. Moratelli/D. Semenistaja vs T. Morderger/Y. Morderger

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.09) > our conservative estimated true probability (90%)
• • Away would need >14.8% true probability to be +EV at 6.75; we see no basis for that uplift

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favourite — low variance if you avoid the longshot
• + Conservative approach avoids taking small negative edges

Cons

• - If hidden information (injury, surface advantage, lineup change) exists, our conservative model may be off
• - Opportunity cost of passing on longshot upside if market underestimates away team

Details

We have no external data returned and must proceed conservatively. The market prices imply a very strong favourite in the home pair (1.09 -> implied probability 91.7%) and a longshot away (6.75 -> implied 14.8%). With no performance, surface, injury, or head-to-head information to justify a probability substantially different from a clear favourite, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 90.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.111; the offered 1.09 is too short and produces a slight negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.019 per unit). The away side would need an estimated win probability above ~14.8% to be +EV at 6.75; with no evidence supporting that uplift we assign them a materially lower chance. Given these conservative estimates and the market prices, there is no value to exploit, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external match data returned — we apply conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market heavily favours home (implied ~91.7%); our conservative estimate 90% is below that
• • Away price (6.75) implies ~14.8% — no evidence to justify a higher true probability