Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~11.76% vs our estimate 13%
• • Positive EV at current price: ~0.105 (10.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear price discrepancy between implied and our conservative estimate
• + Underdogs in doubles/low-tier events carry meaningful upset potential

Cons

• - No external data on form, surface or injuries — high uncertainty
• - Edge is modest; misestimation by a few percentage points removes the value

Details

We observe the market strongly favors the away pair at 1.06 (implied away win ~94.34%, home implied ~11.76%). With no external data on form, surface, head-to-heads or injuries, we apply conservative assumptions: doubles matches at lower-level events retain some upset potential and bookies occasionally underprice long-shot pairings. We estimate the true probability of A. Obradovic/D. Petrovic winning at 13% (0.13). At the quoted home price of 8.5 (implied 11.76%), this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.13 * 8.5 - 1 = 0.105 (10.5% ROI per unit). Given the lack of researchable specifics, our estimate is intentionally cautious but still finds value vs. the market price. We would only recommend backing the home side because expected_value > 0 at current odds; if new information (injury to favorite, changes in lineup, or verified form data) becomes available, the probability should be revised accordingly.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability is ~11.76% (1/8.5), our conservative true estimate is 13%
• • Very limited match-specific data (surface, form, injuries) increases uncertainty
• • Lower-tier/doubles events have higher upset variance than headline singles matches