A. Osoro Ulrich/V. Virseda Sanchez vs S. Araujo/A. Ustero Prieto

Highlights

• • Current price 4.00 > fair price 3.571 based on our estimate
• • Estimated ROI ~12% on a 1-unit stake under our probability assumption

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available market price under conservative assumptions
• + Large decimal odds give room for variance while preserving long-term edge

Cons

• - Decision based on minimal publicly available information; higher model risk
• - If the favorite is truly as strong as the market implies, the bet will lose more often than it wins

Details

We find value on the home side (A. Osoro Ulrich/V. Virseda Sanchez) because, with no additional intelligence available, the market price (Home 4.00) implies a raw probability of 25% (1/4.00) and a normalized implied probability around 23.5% after accounting for book margin. We conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 28.0% based on the likelihood that the market slightly overweights the heavy favorite in low-information matches and standard bookmaker margin effects. At our estimated probability (0.28) the fair decimal price is 3.571; the current market price of 4.00 is superior to that threshold, producing a positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.28 * 4.00 - 1 = +0.12 (12% ROI per unit). We therefore recommend backing the home side only because the current odds offer positive expected value versus our conservative true probability estimate. If new information (injury, withdrawal, surface-specific dominance, or strong form data) becomes available, we would re-evaluate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability vs conservative true probability divergence
• • Lack of external injury/form/H2H information increases model uncertainty
• • Bookmaker margin tends to compress underdog prices in low-liquidity markets