Highlights

• • Implied home probability: ~58.1%; our estimate: 60%
• • EV ≈ +3.2% on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Market prices reflect a home preference that slightly understates our conservative estimate
• + Positive EV at current widely-available price (1.72) under our assumptions

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Edge is small — variance and doubles volatility can erase short-term gains

Details

We compare the bookmaker decimal price (home 1.72 => implied ~58.1%) to our conservative estimate of the true win probability for A. Pozarenko/M. Quesada Oyonarte. With no detailed form, injury, surface or H2H information available, we adopt a cautious stance and assign a modest home edge (60%) reflecting the shorter market price and presumed familiarity with the venue. After accounting for likely bookmaker margin and uncertainty, our estimated true probability (60%) is slightly higher than the implied probability (58.1%), creating a small positive expected value at the current home price of 1.72. The edge is small, so this is a value-seeking recommendation only under the stated conservative assumptions.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker implies ~58.1% for home; we estimate a slightly higher true win chance (60%)
• • No external injury/form/H2H data available — we adopt conservative assumptions
• • Small margin between implied and estimated probabilities creates modest positive EV