Highlights

• • Home fair odds needed: 2.174; market offers 2.28
• • Estimated ROI ~4.9% on a 1-unit stake at current price

Pros

• + Offered odds exceed our minimum fair odds, creating positive EV
• + Conservative probability accounts for lack of data, reducing overconfidence

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific information (surface, form, injuries, H2H)
• - Edge size is small and could be eroded by late information or sharp market moves

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home pair (1 / 2.28 = 43.9%) to our conservative estimated true probability of 46.0%. With no recent form, injury, or H2H data available, we adopt a cautious view that the market is slightly overstating the away pair due to favourite bias and the bookmaker margin. At our estimate the home side represents value because the required fair odds (≈2.174) are lower than the offered 2.28. We also account for an implied market vig of ~7% which, combined with limited information, leads us to keep the probability estimate conservative while still identifying a small positive edge at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability (43.9%) vs our conservative estimate (46.0%)
• • Bookmaker margin present (~7%), we conservatively adjust for it
• • No available injury/form/H2H data forces conservative probability assignment