A. Santillan/Yukun Wang vs C. Ferguson/Mingyuan Yang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the home side at 1.75 because Yang's documented poor form and lack of doubles evidence make the away team less likely to win than the market implies.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 57.1% vs our 62% estimate
- • Estimated EV ≈ 8.5% on a 1-unit stake at 1.75
Pros
- + Current home price (1.75) exceeds our min required odds (1.613) for value
- + Opponent includes a player with poor recent results, lowering true win chance
Cons
- - Research is limited to singles profile for Mingyuan Yang; doubles-specific form/chemistry is unknown
- - Market could be accurate if home pair has strong unreported doubles form
Details
We estimate the home pair (A. Santillan/Yukun Wang) is the value side. The market odds (home 1.75 => implied win probability ~57.1%) understate the likely chances against a pairing that includes Mingyuan Yang, whose available profile shows a 10-21 career record and poor recent form in singles (few wins in last 10 noted matches). Given Yang's weak recent results on hard and clay and the absence of evidence that the away pairing has stronger doubles credentials, we assign a higher true probability to the home side. Comparing our estimated true probability (62%) to the market-implied probability (57.1%) produces a positive expected value at the current home price of 1.75. We acknowledge uncertainty due to limited doubles-specific data and unknown partner form, but the price offers ~8.5% ROI on our estimate.
Key factors
- • Mingyuan Yang's documented poor recent form (10-21 overall, losses in recent events)
- • Market-implied home probability (57.1%) is lower than our estimate (62%)
- • Limited doubles data increases uncertainty but current price created clear value margin