A. Shubladze/R. Zolotareva vs F. Dorofeeva-Rybas/L. Virc

Highlights

• • Home market-implied prob: ~86.2% (1.16)
• • Our conservative true-probability estimate for home: 82.0% → no value

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the home pair, which often reflects real-world advantage
• + If additional positive info emerges (injury to away, favorable surface), value could appear

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.16) is too short relative to our conservative win probability
• - No external data to justify deviating from conservative probability estimates

Details

We have no external research or injury/form/H2H data, so we adopt conservative assumptions and treat the market as largely efficient. The book lists the home pair at 1.16 (implied ~86.2%). Given the lack of information and typical bookmaker margin, we downgrade the home true win probability to 82.0%. At p=0.82 the break-even decimal odds for value are 1.219, higher than the current 1.16 quote. EV at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.82*1.16 - 1 = -0.0488), so backing the heavy favorite is not +EV. Conversely, the away side would need a true win probability >20.83% to be +EV at 4.8; our conservative complement estimate for the away side (18.0%) is below that threshold, so it also has negative EV. With no reliable incremental information to justify diverging from these conservative probabilities, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.16) ≈ 86.2%; we estimate true probability lower (82.0%)
• • Bookmaker margin and heavy favorite price leave no positive EV at current odds