A. Aubriot/M. Scaglia vs C. Bouchelaghem/E. Lumsden

Highlights

• • Market-implied normalized probabilities: Home ~29.5%, Away ~70.5%
• • Home would need ≥3.333 decimal to be +EV given our 30% true probability; current is 3.15

Pros

• + Clear market signal: away pair heavily favored, which helps calibrate probabilities
• + We used conservative assumptions to avoid overbetting on sparse information

Cons

• - No match-level data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Market could be mispriced in ways we cannot detect without external information

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative, internal probability estimate given the absence of any outside information. Market-implied probabilities (raw) are Away 75.8% (1/1.32) and Home 31.8% (1/3.15). Normalizing for an approximate bookmaker overround (~7.5%) yields roughly Away 70.5% and Home 29.5%. With no form, surface, H2H, or injury data available, we adopt a conservative true probability for the home side of 30.0% (slightly above the normalized market estimate to avoid overreacting to the market). At those numbers the required fair decimal price for the home pair would be 1/0.30 = 3.333. The current home price is 3.15, which produces negative expected value: EV = 0.30 * 3.15 - 1 = -0.055 (about -5.5% ROI). The away price (1.32) similarly shows no clear positive edge versus a conservative estimated true probability of ~70% (EV ≈ -7.6%). Given both sides produce negative EV under conservative probability estimates, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we apply conservative priors
• • Market heavily favors the away pair (1.32) with a sizeable bookmaker overround (~7.5%)
• • Normalized market probabilities imply Home ~29.5% and Away ~70.5%; we use 30% for home as a conservative true estimate
• • Current home odds (3.15) are below the minimum fair price (3.333) required for positive EV
• • Both sides show negative EV under conservative probability estimates, so no value exists at current prices