A. Bista/A. Ukaegbu vs J. Adams/S. Atturu

Highlights

• • Away is a prohibitive favourite (1.04) — would require >96.15% true win chance to be +EV
• • Home at 10.5 requires >9.524% true win chance; our conservative estimate is ~8%

Pros

• + We avoid taking unsupported positions when market prices are extreme
• + Conservative approach protects bankroll from informationally driven mistakes

Cons

• - If hidden factors (injury, withdrawal, extreme surface edge) exist, we may miss rare value
• - Large underdog payout could be attractive to risk-seeking bettors despite negative EV

Details

Market prices strongly favour the away pair at 1.04 (implied ~96.2%). With no external form, surface, injury or H2H data available, we apply conservative assumptions. We estimate the underdog (home) has roughly an 8.0% chance to win, which is below the market-breakpoint required to make the 10.5 price profitable. Required probability to justify a bet at 10.5 is 9.524% (1/10.5), so the home line offers negative expected value under our conservative projection. Similarly, to back the heavy favourite at 1.04 we would need to believe they have >96.154% win probability, which we cannot credibly assert given lack of supporting data. Therefore no value side exists at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies an overwhelming probability for the away side (1.04)
• • No independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — must be conservative
• • Underdog implied probability (9.52%) is slightly above our estimated true chance (8%)