Highlights

• • Market implies ~89.3% chance; we estimate ~80%
• • Negative EV at current odds (-0.104) — do not bet

Pros

• + Home side is priced as a very strong favorite, implying a high win probability
• + If our conservative probability is too low, there could be small value — but this is unlikely given the extreme price

Cons

• - Current decimal odds (1.12) offer no positive expected value under conservative assumptions
• - No supporting data on form, surface, H2H or injuries to justify the short price

Details

The market price of 1.12 implies an 89.3% win probability for the home pair. No external data was available, so we apply conservative assumptions: doubles matches have more variance and absent form/injury/H2H data we reduce the market-implied probability to a realistic true probability of 80.0%. At that true probability the fair decimal price would be 1.25, which is substantially higher than the current 1.12. Calculating EV at the available price (1.12) yields a negative expectation (EV = 0.80 * 1.12 - 1 = -0.104), so there is no value to back the favorite. Given the extreme short price and lack of supporting information, we recommend not betting.

Key factors

• • Current market-implied probability (1/1.12 = 89.3%) is very high
• • No independent form, surface or injury data available — we discount market edge and increase uncertainty
• • Doubles outcomes are typically more variable, so we lower the true probability relative to the market