Highlights

• • Both sides listed at 1.86 (market-implied ~53.8% each).
• • We estimate home true win probability ~44%, requiring ~2.273 odds to be profitable.

Pros

• + We have a concrete recent-performance signal for one home player (Burdet).
• + Market symmetry (1.86/1.86) simplifies value comparison.

Cons

• - Scarce information on the doubles partner and the opposing team increases model uncertainty.
• - Home player's recent record suggests below-market chances, producing negative EV at current prices.

Details

We compared the market prices (both sides at 1.86, implying ~53.8% each) to what we judge to be a realistic win probability for the home pairing. The only concrete data available in research is A. Burdet's profile showing a weak overall record (10-21) and recent losses on hard and clay, with no reliable information on his partner T. Genier or the opponents J. Hsu/D. Sakellaridis. Given Burdet's poor form and the lack of positive evidence for the home duo, we estimate the home side's true win probability materially below the market-implied ~53.8%. Using an estimated true probability of 44.0% for the home team, the fair odds would be ~2.273 decimal; at the current market odds of 1.86 the bet has negative expected value. With limited information on the opposition and partner dynamics, we cannot justify taking the market price, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • A. Burdet's recent form is poor (10-21 career, recent losses)
• • Market prices are balanced (both sides 1.86) implying ~53.8% each
• • No reliable data on partners/opponents in the provided research increases uncertainty