Highlights

• • Market implies 78.7% for home; our estimate 60%
• • EV at current home price (1.27) is approximately -23.8%

Pros

• + Home is a clear market favorite, indicating perceived advantage
• + Available player data (Burdet) gives a baseline for conservative modeling

Cons

• - Burdet’s recent results and overall record are weak
• - No provided data on partners or opponents increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.27 → implied 78.7%) to our assessment based on the available player data. A. Burdet's career record (10-21) and clearly poor recent form (only 1 win noted in recent matches) suggest the home pairing is not nearly as strong as the market implies. We lack any information on the partner T. Genier or the opponents R. Glarner/I. Zimmermann in the provided research, which increases uncertainty and reduces confidence in the market’s heavy split. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 60% for the home side, the current home price (1.27) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.27 - 1 = -0.238), so there is no value to back the favorite at the quoted price. For a positive EV on the home side we would need at least decimal 1.667, well above the current 1.27. Given the lack of opponent/partner data and Burdet’s recent form, we do not recommend taking the market favorite here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~78.7% (1/1.27)
• • A. Burdet has a weak overall record (10-21) and poor recent form
• • Insufficient data on doubles partner and opponents increases uncertainty