A. Chandrasekar/R. Stalder vs Y. Inui/Y. Kikuchi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home side: estimated win probability 86% vs market-implied 84%, producing ~2.34% ROI at 1.19.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.19 vs our fair price 1.163
- • Positive but modest expected value (≈0.0234 per unit staked)
Pros
- + Market consensus supports the home pair as clear favorites
- + Conservative probability estimate still yields positive EV at current odds
Cons
- - Edge is small — sensitive to estimation error and unknown factors
- - No external verification of form/injuries available increases model risk
Details
The market price for A. Chandrasekar/R. Stalder is 1.19 (implied 84.0%). With no external injury or form information available, we apply a conservative internal adjustment and estimate the pair's true win probability at 86.0%. That modest uplift reflects the strong market consensus and the typical bookmaker margin (overround ~7.0%) which can leave slight exploitable edges on clear favorites in short formats like doubles. At our probability (0.86) the fair decimal price is 1.163; the offered 1.19 therefore shows positive expected value. We avoid the away side because, absent evidence of mitigating factors, Y. Inui/Y. Kikuchi would need a >22.99% chance to be profitable at 4.35 — our conservative view places them below that threshold.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors the home pair (1.19) implying bookmaker belief in clear favorite
- • No external injury/form data available -> we use conservative upward adjustment vs implied market
- • Bookmaker overround (~7%) suggests slight inefficiency on a dominant favorite in doubles