A. Coello/A. Tapia vs F. Chingotto/A. Galan

Highlights

• • Conservative true-win estimate for home: 68%
• • Break-even odds for home: 1.471 vs market 1.39 → negative EV

Pros

• + Market consensus is clear and priced aggressively for the favorite
• + Conservative probability prevents overbetting on incomplete information

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to detect hidden edges
• - Current prices leave no margin for error — small estimation shifts could change EV sign

Details

We treat the market-implied favorite (Home 1.39) as plausible but apply conservative assumptions because no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data is available. The market implies a very strong chance for the home pair; using a conservative estimated true win probability of 68.0% for the home side yields a break-even decimal price of 1.471. The current home price (1.39) is below that threshold, producing a negative expected return. The away price (2.85) would require an estimated win probability of at least 35.1% to break even; under our conservative view the away pair is less likely than that break-even mark. Given the lack of supporting data and bookmaker margin, neither side shows positive expected value at the provided prices.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors home (1.39) but we apply a conservative 68% true-win estimate
• • No available data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H to justify diverging strongly from market
• • Bookmaker margin and tight pricing leave little room for value at current quotes