A. Donski/P. Nesterov vs H. Heliovaara/E. Vasa
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home side (2.23) using a conservative 47% win estimate, producing ~4.8% expected ROI; position is valuable but modest and subject to data uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Home implied chance 44.8% vs our estimate 47.0%
- • Required fair odds 2.128; market offers 2.23
Pros
- + Current price (2.23) exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.128), giving positive EV
- + Conservative probability estimate limits overconfidence given lack of data
Cons
- - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) — estimate is uncertain
- - Doubles outcomes are more volatile; small-edges can be erased by variance
Details
Market odds imply a 44.8% chance for the home pair (2.23) and a 62.5% chance for the away pair (1.60) but include a house margin (~7%). With no external data, we apply conservative assumptions and estimate the true win probability for A. Donski/P. Nesterov at 47.0% — modestly higher than the market-implied 44.8% for home. That implies a fair decimal price of 2.128 (1/0.47). The available price of 2.23 offers positive expected value because 2.23 > 2.128. EV = 0.47 * 2.23 - 1 = +0.048 (≈4.8% ROI on a single bet), so the home price appears to provide value after accounting for market vig and uncertainty. We remain conservative about the estimate due to lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H data; this recommendation hinges on the market overpricing the away favourites and the plausible parity between pairs.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities include bookmaker margin; we remove some bias
- • No external form/injury/H2H data — we use conservative parity tilt toward home
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; value emerges when market overweights favourites