A. Easwaramurthi/S. Milanese vs D. Khomutsianskaya/A. Kubareva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: A very small-value play on the home underdog (6.75) versus a heavily favoured opponent; margin is tiny and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability: 15.0%
- • Current price (6.75) slightly exceeds minimum fair odds (6.667)
Pros
- + Available odds give a small positive EV (≈+0.0125 per unit staked)
- + Short-favourite markets (1.09) can compress probability and occasionally underprice longshots
Cons
- - Edge is marginal — close to break-even and may be nullified by small model or information errors
- - No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to support the uplift, increasing risk
Details
We compared the market price (Home 6.75, Away 1.09) to a conservative independent assessment. The moneyline implies the market gives the home team roughly a 13.9% chance after normalizing for vig. Given the lack of independent data (no form, injury, surface, or H2H information returned) we apply a conservative uplift to the home probability to 15.0% to account for market compression around very short favourites (1.09). At an estimated true probability of 15.0%, the fair decimal odds would be 6.667; the available price of 6.75 therefore offers a small positive expected value. We remain cautious because this edge is marginal and the information set is limited.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favours the away side (1.09) creating potential over-compression
- • No external research returned — elevated uncertainty in estimates
- • Small edge: our conservative true probability (15%) implies required odds ~6.667, market offers 6.75