Highlights

• • Away implied win probability 69.4% vs our estimate 42%
• • Home needs only ~38.0% true chance to break even at current price

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.63)
• + Favored side's form (Shuo Feng) in research undermines the market's heavy favoritism

Cons

• - Research is limited and focuses on Shuo Feng; lack of doubles-specific and partner information increases uncertainty
• - High variance in tennis/doubles outcomes means realized results can deviate substantially from probability estimates

Details

Market prices make the away team strong favorite at decimal 1.44 (implied ~69%). The only research provided highlights Shuo Feng's weak form and overall win rate (10-21 career matches, poor recent results), which reduces our confidence that the away pairing is a ~70% chance to win. With limited data on the partners and doubles form, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 42%. At that probability the home moneyline 2.63 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.42 * 2.63 - 1 = +0.105. The home side needs only a >38.02% true win probability to be profitable at current odds, and our assessment (42%) exceeds that threshold despite high uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Shuo Feng's overall win-loss record is weak (10-21) and recent results are poor
• • Market heavily favors the away side (implied ~69%), which looks inflated given available player form data
• • Limited/dubious information on doubles-specific form increases uncertainty but creates potential market inefficiency in favour of the underdog