A. Goransson/E. Grevelius vs A. Bennour Dit Sahli/A. Ouakaa

Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability (92%) exceeds market-implied (90.91%)
• • Projected ROI is small (~1.2%) but positive at current odds

Pros

• + Market price already reflects heavy favoritism, and our conservative model still finds a slight edge
• + Low variance outcome expectation in favor of the strong market favorite

Cons

• - Very small absolute payout; edge is small and sensitive to modest probability shifts
• - No additional match data (injuries, surface, form, H2H) — increases model uncertainty

Details

We have no external match details beyond the market prices, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The book market prices the home pair at 1.10 (implied probability 90.91%). Given typical doubles dynamics and the market's strong favoritism, we estimate the home pair's true win probability slightly higher at 92.0%. At that probability the home side offers a small positive edge: EV = 0.92 * 1.10 - 1 = +0.012 (1.2% ROI). The margin is small, so this is a low-margin value opportunity rather than a large misprice. Key uncertainties are the absence of injury/form/H2H data and the low upside of backing heavy favorites; those increase execution risk but do not eliminate the slight positive expected value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Market implies heavy favoritism for home (1.10 = 90.91% implied)
• • No independent injury/form/H2H data available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Small margin between our estimated probability and the market creates limited positive EV