Highlights

• • Our fair price for the home side ≈ 1.724; market is shorter at 1.68
• • EV at current favorite price is slightly negative (~ -0.026 per unit)

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite, suggesting some advantage
• + Estimated true probability is close to the market, so downside is limited

Cons

• - No external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify diverging from the market
• - Bookmaker margin absorbs potential edge; both sides lack positive EV at current prices

Details

We estimate the home pair (A. Holmgren/J. Ingildsen) is modestly favored but not by enough to overcome the market price and vig. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.68 is about 59.5%; using conservative assumptions due to no form, injury, surface or H2H data, we estimate a true win probability of 58.0% for the home team (42.0% for the away team). At our estimate the fair decimal price for the home side is ~1.724, which is slightly longer than the market 1.68, producing a small negative EV on the favorite; the away side is priced even shorter of our required threshold. Given the lack of independent information and the bookmaker margin, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • No independent form/injury/H2H data available—estimates are conservative
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.68) ~59.5% vs our estimate 58.0%
• • Book margin (vig) reduces available value; both sides priced inside our thresholds