Highlights

• • Book implied: Home 37.7% vs our estimate 34%
• • Required decimal for home to be +EV: 2.941; current 2.65 is too short

Pros

• + We use conservative probabilities given lack of data — reduces chance of false positive value
• + Clear threshold (min_required_decimal_odds) provided if better prices appear

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to no match-specific data (form, surface, H2H, injuries)
• - Conservative estimates may miss soft market mispricings if additional info exists

Details

We compared the bookmaker decimals to a conservative, data-sparse estimate. The market prices (Home 2.65 => implied 37.7%; Away 1.43 => implied 69.9%) favor the away pair. With no recent form, surface, H2H, or injury data available, we apply a conservative estimate that the home pair's true win probability is about 34%. At that probability the fair odds would be ~2.94, which is higher than the available 2.65, so the home price does not represent positive expected value. Conversely, the away price looks a bit short relative to our conservative estimate (we estimate away ~66%), so we do not find value on the favorite either. Given the uncertainty and lack of corroborating information, we decline to recommend a side because neither listed price offers positive EV versus our conservative probabilities.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, H2H or injury data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market implies home win 37.7% (2.65); our conservative estimate for home is 34%
• • Positive EV on the home side would require odds >= 2.941, above the current 2.65